Social Media Presence and Album Sales:
Does the Correlation Truly Exist?
Similar to the changes brought on by the advent of streaming services and digital music retailers, the music industry has once again been revolutionized, this time, by the recent rise in popularity and power of social media. The array of such computer-mediated platforms like Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Spotify have become central hubs for two-way communication between artists and the public. Now, musicians have the capability to directly interact with their fans, promote their music, sell their albums, and keep their followers updated on their lives and careers, all with the click of a button. Consequently, a good percentage of new artists have risen to fame through strong and consistent social media presence. This suggests that while the music industry is evolving, so are music fans—they are no longer the passive, non-selective consumers of traditional media they once were. Now, with virtually unlimited access to the world’s endless catalog of artists via the Internet, music fans have the power to be selective as far as the music and artists they listen to. It is that power of active analysis and preference that makes an artist’s social media presence so crucial to their success.
In the pre-tech boom music industry, physical record sales and the corresponding royalties were the key performance indicator of a musician’s success, and generally composed a majority of an artist’s revenue (Resnikoff, 2013). Today, in response to the prevalence of fee-based streaming services and digital downloads, concert tours and live performances have eclipsed physical sales as the key source of revenue. Although a handful of top tier musicians still do make a decent income selling records, roughly the top 10% of artists (Kafka, 2015), the remaining 90% are left to rely on touring and tour merchandise sales. That said, it is reasonable to conclude that a larger, more widely attended tour will garner more dollars for the artist and more people willing to buy the performer’s music. Larger attendance requires more fans, and fan acquisition in this day and age is primarily done through social media.
Considering the hundreds of thousands, maybe millions of artist profiles music listeners have the option of following on any given social media platform, it is up the musician or band to create content that attracts fans, maintains interest, and offers consistent engagement opportunities in order to stand out in the highly saturated “market”. If utilized correctly, social media presence can be a major factor in an artist’s brand development and increase album sales through personal fan engagement and interaction. Numerous studies have been conducted on determining whether or not there is a correlation between an artist or band’s social media activity and album sales. Though a majority conclude that there is, at the very least, some discernible parallels between the two factors, a couple of studies’ findings contradict this. In an effort to test the conclusions of the opposing studies, this paper extolls a comparative analysis of two musical artists’—Father John Misty and The Arcs—social media presence and how they support the existence of a correlation between social media activity and album sales.
Literature Review
Social Media’s Impact on Sales
Though some artists have expressed that they find the concept and the upkeep of social media daunting and pointless, studies have found that tweeting, status updating, posting, and Instagram-ing do indeed reap reward in terms of boosting music sales. A study conducted by the New York-based online music data analytics company, Next Big Sound, revealed a clear correlation between an artist’s social media activity and their music sales numbers (2015). Evaluation and in-depth analysis of various online platforms, ranging from Facebook to Soundcloud to Twitter, indicate social media is a key player in driving paid downloads because of the engagement opportunities to be taken advantage of on the sites. Instagram, in particular, emerged as the fastest growing social media resource for musicians, as further explained in the following statement made by Next Big Sound:
“This past May, Next Big Sound tracked more than 280 million new followers for artists [on Instagram], close to 6x the activity we were seeing less than a year ago – a multiple that speaks to the skyrocketing popularity of Instagram as a means for interacting with fans.” (2015, p. 1)
This emphasis on fan interaction and relationship establishment is one of the main takeaways of the study and other articles that discuss the topic (Titlow, 2012). The importance of engaging fans, and not simply posting dry content, is apparent in the data which shows Facebook page views have a stronger correlation with album sales than Facebook Likes (Titlow, 2012). Simply put, the mere presence of an artist on social media means nothing without that artist’s willingness to consistently update and interact with their fans/followers.
Specifically, the numbers indicate approximately 38% of artists’ digital album sales are affected by Facebook page views, while fan tweets and mentions affect a mere 8% of digital album sales (DeBell, 2013). Despite the smaller numbers for social platforms other than Facebook, researchers warn the data may not reveal the whole story. Further analysis of qualitative elements of the posts and social media activity is encouraged to gain a more complete understanding of the information.
Social Media and Artist Branding
Though social media is extremely useful in the promotion of an artist’s music, it is also a key platform on which artists can create and mold their personal images and build their brand. It is no secret that many musicians’ social media personas are meticulously designed and shaped, often managed by a manager or agency (BeDell, 2013). Certainly, there are artists who take responsibility for their social media presence themselves, but they, too, tend to curate their post content to align with a particular image or reputation they are trying to convey online. As explained by Brenner, the creation of a strong and cohesive personal brand is essential to enhancing one’s professional image and generating buzz; it may even be the difference between a long, successful career and a mere 15 minutes in the spotlight (2013).
Four key lessons, in particular, are denoted in terms of successfully promoting an artist’s personal brand via social media outlets. The first is to clearly define the product, which is the persona or version of the artist intended to be broadcast to fans and followers (Brenner, 2013). It is imperative that the final image decided upon is unique in some way to ensure the artist stands out among the plethora of other musician profiles on the web. Second, it is necessary to post and upload content regularly to maintain relevance and follower interest. Research also shows that “insider” information or behind-the-scenes type content is highly effective in developing fan loyalty by providing exclusive insight about the artist straight from the source (Kumar, Ramani, Saboo, 2015). Third is to actively engage and interact with fans who make an effort to comment, post, or tweet at the musician. Though arguably unnecessary, the extra effort made by the artist to respond is generally always viewed in a positive light. Finally, it is in the artist’s and his or her personal brand’s best interest to always make improvements and adjustments to the social media content and/or persona when necessary. As Brenner states, “if [an artist] ever feels like [they] are plateauing, figure out a way to change the game, don’t be afraid to take calculated risks and rejuvenate your personal brand” (2015, p. 1).
Social Identity Theory and Music Fans
To better understand why particular people are drawn to particular artists, a handful of studies reference Social Identity Theory to explain the reasoning behind the mystery. As Social Identity Theory (SIT) generally suggests, consumers, or in this case music fans, reflect a sense of who they are based on their group membership, or in this case artist preference (Kumar, Ramani, Saboo, 2015). What this ultimately implies is that an individual will tend to gravitate towards an artist whose social media persona embodies characteristics the individual admires or possesses themselves (Frith, 2012). This is valuable information for artists who can then, with the main concept of SIT in mind, focus on tailoring their social media content to their fans based on what characteristics the artist believes they have or admire. As supported by research conducted by Hortacsu,
“…respondents typically described themselves as being closer to the ideal value on the three dimensions than the listeners of musical styles they liked. These results provide considerable support for the idea that liking a musical style or artist shows characteristics of group membership according to Social Identity Theory.” (2002, p.)
These mutual key traits, once successfully determined, are of immense value in that they become the building blocks for a powerful bond between artist and fan. At that point, once a bond is created and is strong enough, the fan will inherently posses a more favorable perception of the artist and see him or her in a more positive light. The bond will essentially establish a degree of bias, one that benefits the artist because fans will be more likely to overlook things like mediocre songs, posts, and other content, thus achieving the brand loyalty mentioned earlier in a previous section.
Methodology
Sample Selection and Data Collection
This research focuses on an in-depth analysis of two artists’—Father John Misty (FJM) and The Arcs—social media presence on the platforms of Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Soundcloud, and Spotify. These two particular subjects were chosen because of some key similarities they share in an effort to maintain a degree of control and eliminate as much skewing of the data as possible. Both artists are grouped into the genre category of alternative rock, so it can be assumed they target a similar audience as far as musical taste. Additionally, both Father John Misty and The Arcs also each happen to be projects of artists who are or were originally part of another band, and therefore both have the benefit of starting out with a solid residual fan base. For example, Father John Misty, whose real name is Josh Tilman, was formerly the drummer of a very successful alternative folk band called Fleet Foxes. The Arcs, similarly, is led by Dan Auerbach, one half of the equally successful Black Keys soul rock duo. One key difference to note, however, is difference in the length of time either album has been released to the public—I Love You Honeybear (10 months), Yours, Dreamily (4 months).
Once the final subjects were selected, qualitative and quantitative social media data was pulled from each of the artists’ respective Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Spotify, and Soundcloud profiles.
Table 1
The table above breaks down the quantitative numerical data to show how the artists are currently doing in terms of number of followers and likes they have on each social media outlet. Immediately, the blatant gap in followers indicates a stronger social media presence for Father John Misty, however, only further qualitative data can propose why that is.
The second pool of data pulled was from the information and sales tracking system, Nielsen SoundScan (2015). Album sales data for Father John Misty’s I Love You, Honeybear and The Arcs’ Yours, Dreamily have been pulled for each month since their respective releases.
Table 2
Analysis
Qualitative Overview
An initial look at the numerical social media data clearly reveals Father John Misty as the lead, at least in terms of followers and likes. To further understand why that is the case, a more thorough evaluation of the content posted on each of the platforms is necessary. The first social media site to be evaluated is Facebook, which happens to be the platform on which the largest disparity exists between the artists’ utilization of it. Father John Misty’s page on the site boasts a solid 162,578 likes, and the artist generally posts a new video, picture, status update, or merchandise promotion every or every other day. The nature of his content is equal parts personal and self-promotional. Sprinkled throughout posts of tour date reminders and new music videos are more exclusive, personal content like personal commentary on his music, vivid explanations of his dreams, and home footage of the behind-the-scenes of his life. His profile image is even a photo of a fan dressed up as him, a home run in the world of fan interaction. Referring back to the point made in the Artist Branding section, this disclosure and attention to fans is an essential part of building fan relationships by making them feel included in the artist’s life. The Arcs’ Facebook page, on the other hand, is detrimentally underdeveloped and underutilized. With a mere 27,545 likes, it pales in comparison to the number of followers and the level of engagement exhibited by Father John Misty on his page. The Arcs, though they do post with similar consistency, fail to provide fans with any exclusive content or direct interaction. All of the posts are strictly promotional or tour-related and garner, on average, a disappointing 100 – 300 likes.
Moving onto Twitter, though Father John Misty recently deleted his account on that platform, he still outperformed The Arcs in number of followers, engagement, and content quality. When his account was active, FJM was averaging at least a tweet a day, always personal and hardly ever promotional. In fact, his Twitter account is really where the infamous Father John Misty persona was fully exposed to the public. The image of FJM as a psychedelics-swallowing satirist and self-aware sex symbol was expertly conveyed through his often sarcastic, passive aggressive, cheeky, and charming tweets. Though certainly a character with niche appeal, it is an example of the clearly defined and expressed brand that Brenner emphasizes so much in his article (2013). The Arcs, unfortunately, have yet to take advantage of the branding opportunities on Twitter. They, unlike Father John Misty, post content that is the same or similar to what is posted on their Facebook page—strictly promotional, never personal. Reading the soul rock outfit’s tweets, one fails to get a sense of who they are outside of just a successful band. There is no clearly expressed brand because the posts do not venture beyond business-related content. This suggests that the account is most likely run by a manager or agency as opposed to the band or one of the band member’s themselves.
Instagram further reveals the artists’ vastly different approaches to social media strategy and presence. Father John Misty, to align with his reputation as a sarcastic culture-warrior, almost exclusively posts stock photos of random generic scenarios accompanied by a snarky yet brutally honest caption that calls out a major societal flaw/quirk. This unique, albeit strange, utilization of Instagram, is consistent with the image and persona FJM is trying to convey. The Arcs utilization of the platform, on the contrary, is promotionally-driven and impersonal, just like their presence on the aforementioned social media sites. Furthermore, the quality and nature of each artists’ respective activity on Soundcloud and Spotify remain consistent with the kind of activity on social media platforms already discussed.
Sales Peaks
The qualitative analysis explains, to some degree, how Father John Misty may harness his social media savvy to attract and maintain fan interest that ultimately results in greater album sales. However, to really identify whether or not a correlation exists between the artists’ social media presence and their album sales data, it is crucial to look at the peaks in sales and look for corresponding social media activity during that time which may have triggered the spike. In its 8th month on the market, for example, Father John Misty’s album saw a seemingly spontaneous peak in sales, jumping almost 9,000 copies sold from the previous month. An evaluation of his social media activity during that month, September, revealed the artist did do something on social media that most likely explains the sudden boost in sales. On September 21st, FJM tweeted a link to his Soundcloud page explaining he recorded two covers of Ryan Adams’ recent covers of Taylor Swift songs. News of the covers spread like wildfire, and although they only existed on his Soundcloud profile for less than 24 hours, the mass coverage and attention the content garnered was substantial enough to increase awareness of FJM as an artist and therefore entice new fans to purchase his album.
The Arcs’ sales data, too, shows a notable spike in sales, this time, in the album’s 3rd month on the market. Evaluation of the band’s social media accounts during that month, November, did not reveal any obvious activity triggers like Father John Misty. The Arcs’ tour date table on their website, however, did show that the main leg of their national tour started in November, which may indicate why sales started to rise in that month. Once again looking back at the social media activity for The Arcs during November, a significant amount of their post content revolved around tour date reminders and show updates. That said, it can be argued that social media played a role in boosting sales for that month by broadcasting tour information.
Conclusions
Overall, both the quantitative and qualitative analyses of Father John Misty’s and The Arcs’ social media presence and sales data supports the idea that a correlation does exist between the two sets of information. This is evident in that the consistency, quality, and content of Father John Misty’s posts coincide with his greater success in sales, while The Arcs’ less developed and impersonal content mimics the band’s less impressive album sales. The correlation is further supported in the existence of key social media activity that aligns with sales peaks for both artists. Ultimately, for The Arcs to better utilize their social presence, they need to interact with and engage fans more consistently through posting exclusive personal content and establishing a clear brand identity. Once those two tactics are implemented, The Arcs will be able to foster more meaningful and lasting fan relationships, as well as a more interesting and engaging social media presence, that will ultimately lead to better sales as indicated by the correlation patterns.
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